A Chinese base in Vanuatu, or another Fairfax beat up?

Should Australia be concerned about a rumoured Chinese military expansion in the Pacific? Or is it yet another distraction from the Government’s domestic problems? Political editor Dr Martin Hirst investigates.

First published on Independent Australia Wednesday 11 April

ON MONDAY this week. the Fairfax papers and websites ran an “exclusive” story with the alarming headline ‘China eyes Vanuatu military base in plan with global ramifications‘ — but is the story accurate? The lead par was an insistent and alarming allegation that China was planning a naval base in Vanuatu,

‘… that could see the rising superpower sail warships on Australia’s doorstep.’

However, in typical fashion – that we’ve come to expect from mainstream journalists covering the “security” round – the next two pars walked back the suggestion and sourced it to “senior security officials” in Canberra. In other words, the reporter, David Wroe, had been given a “drop” a background briefing by an Australian spook, because the Government wanted to float the idea and get a reaction.

‘While no formal proposals have been put to Vanuatu’s government, senior security officials believe Beijing’s plans could culminate in a full military base.’

The tell that this was a planted story is in the lack of detail and the vague sourcing:

‘The prospect of a Chinese military outpost so close to Australia has been discussed at the highest levels in Canberra and Washington.’

The Vanuatu Government was quick to issue denials and even labelled the Fairfax reports as “fake news”.

Vanuatu’s Foreign Minister Ralph Regenvanu said rumours of discussions with China over a military base were false.

“We are a non-aligned country. We are not interested in militarisation, we are just not interested in any sort of military base in our country,” Mr Regenvanu told the ABC.

However, David Wroe’s story still had the effect desired by the Australian “security officials” who briefed him. Within hours, PM Turnbull was able to front the media to express Australia’s concern at the – still unproven – rumours.

“We would view with great concern the establishment of any foreign military bases in those Pacific Island countries and neighbours of ours,” Turnbull bloviated.

This is an interesting position and an even more puzzling definition of “foreign”. The United States operates more than 20 military bases across the Pacific – from Hawaii to Japan and many ports in between – so why isn’t this alarming to our Prime Minister?

And this is what is really ironic and cynical about Turnbull’s concern: there is – as yet – no Chinese military base in Vanuatu, yet the United States operates permanent military bases throughout the Pacific, including in Australia, Japan (21 bases), Guam and South Korea.

World War 3 – will it start over North Korea?

Since the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House the world appears to be moving closer to a catastrophic military conflict that threatens nuclear Armageddon. In this first in a series, political editor Dr Martin Hirst assesses the possibility that we’re already fighting World War Three.

‘The fear of war hangs over society. This is almost literally true, for it is not the invader in the streets but the warhead exploding on us which dominates our nightmares.’

~ Martin Shaw, Dialectics of War, 1988

(Image via @BlackJesuscom)

THIS IS A SERIES that looks at global flashpoints and their potential to blast the world into a nuclear nightmare. It was once unthinkable that strategic nuclear weapons might be used in a world-wide war, but now we need to start thinking it is more likely than not.

And just this month, Donald J Trump caused the “Mother of all bombs” to be dropped in Afghanistan to explode over… we may never know what exactly.

Are we already inside World War Three?

In this series, I will look at Asia, the Middle East and Europe as places where potential nuclear trigger points might occur and then, on a brighter note, I’ll offer some suggestions about how we might stop it.

Let’s begin on our own doorstep.

We are not neutral

We are not neutral and we never have been. Australia is a willing and active partner in many of today’s global conflicts. Despite contrary propaganda, this does not make us safer, it increases the risk that we will be a target too.

Pine Gap makes us a target for Chinese and possibly North Korean and Russian nukes. I’m more worried about China and Russia because they both have nuclear-capable submarines that can reach us almost undetected.

When 1,250 US marines flew into Darwin this week, the NewsCorpse rag that dominates Northern Territory journalism, the NT News, could hardly contain its jingoistic excitement, declaring on page one that they are “ready to fight” against “our” common enemies.

We should be under no illusion or misapprehension about their intent:

Lieut. Colonel Middleton said when US Marines were in forward deployment they were ready for battle.

“I think that the commitment that we’ve taken to put a task force here with a conversation to get larger over the years says that we do think this is an important region,” Lieut. Colonel Middleton said.

When asked about the North Korea stand-off he said: “We stand ready to fight.”

I can only hope that this made the good souls of Darwin feel a lot safer, knowing that they are potentially within range of North Korean rockets.

We all have “potential”

It’s important to focus on this word “potentially”, because it is a crucial qualifier.

Our foreign minister, Julie Bishop, has used the threat of a DPRK nuclear strike on Australia as one reason for enthusiastically welcoming over 1,000 marines to northern Australia, but the threat is not imminent, or even realistic today.

Weapons experts agree that North Korea is at least four years away from developing a ballistic missile capable of a) carrying a nuclear warhead and b) travelling as far as Australia without blowing up mid-flight.

Speaking on the ABC’s AM program earlier this week Bishop was keen to talk up the North Korean “threat”.

“[North Korea] is on a path to achieving nuclear weapons capability and we believe Kim Jong-un has a clear ambition to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear payload as far as the US.”

But what Bishop ignores here – and she hopes you will too – is that while North Korea’s nuclear threat is only “potential”, the United States has a proven nuclear capability and a proven propensity to use atomic weapons.

Not only that, hawkish American analysts are now insisting that the U.S. must strike first and this first strike should happen sooner rather than later.

…the United States must plan to destroy North Korea’s nuclear and long-range missile sites sometime in the next several years — and perhaps within the next two.

At the same time, it must be expected that the American action would trigger the North Korean military to instinctively launch a full-scale retaliatory strike against the Republic of Korea (ROK) along the armistice line of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), whether or not Mr. Kim remains alive. With that as a given, the United States must prevent such an event by launching, simultaneously with the initial attack on the North Korean nuclear and ICBM facilities, a full-scale offensive against the North’s positions along the DMZ. There can be no delay in this U.S.-ROK offense, for it is essential to preclude North Korea’s own counteroffensive against the South.

This is a clear statement of aggression from the American side.

The argument for a pre-emptive strike against North Korea is that its patron-state, China, is incapable of stopping Pyongyang through purely diplomatic efforts.

So is China an ally or an enemy?

This piece first published on Independent Australia as Are we already fighting World War 3?

Another posting of the herbal baby soup hoax with racist overtones

Attention: EM’s explanation for reposting this:

It seems that some people cannot accept that this so-called news ‘story’ is a steaming bowl of racist crap, not real babies in soup.
I am always gob-smacked when the traffic to my ‘herbal soup’ thread jumps.
In the last couple of days I have tracked this back to Singapore.
It surfaces regularly. Same photos from Zhu Yu and same blood libel jibber jabber.
Even when one sane soul joins the thread and points out that the whole thing is fake some dribblejaws continue to want to believe it.

Update: 10pm Melbourne time:

I left a comment on the Singapore site of Breathing Asia, but they were still in moderation some 18 hours later.

Could be innocent, but for the record:

Breathing Asia, Living Singapore

I am beyond disgusted and being Chinese, I still need to say this, what is wrong with people in China?  WHy would you even come up with this?  Why are people drinking this?  Why are people proud to be able to purchase this?  WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU???!!!

“The Baby Soup is called in the local jargon ‘Spare Rib Soup’ and is not available on a daily basis. The reporter who originally wrote the article in Chinese said that he had to wait a couple of weeks until a baby was available. A couple who had two daughters already had a third pregnancy which they aborted when they found out at 5 months it was again a girl. So they contacted the restaurant and sold their aborted daughter. Babies which are close to term (i.e. 9 months) cost 2,000 yuan (about US$ 290) The ones that are aborted earlier only…

View original post 124 more words

The “godfather” of Chinese blogging: Isaac Mao in New Zealand

I’ve had the privilege in the last couple of days of spending quality time with Isaac Mao, the well-known Chinese blogger and social media enthusiast.

Isaac is in New Zealand this week on a speaking tour of J-schools generously sponsored by the Asia-New Zealand Foundation. Isaac’s passionate commitment to free speech and democratic ideals is clear from his thoughtful and fact-packed presentations. My only regret is that more of New Zealand’s blogging community didn’t take advantage of his two speaking dates in Auckland to actually meet with Isaac.

Despite the fact that a lot of people who should have known better chose to ignore what I think is an important event of interest to Kiwi bloggers, some media have taken a great interest in Isaac’s commentary on social media and the blogosphere in China.

Isaac Mao on Asian Report with Jason Moon National Radio 20 Oct 2009

Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about “The “godfather” of Chinese blogging |…“, posted with vodpod

Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about “World TV Ltd – www.wtv.co.nz“, posted with vodpod

You still have a couple of chances in Wellington, Christchurch and Rotorua, it is well worthwhile. Isaac is on his way to Los Angeles whree he is a speaker at UCLA’s 40th anniversary of the Internet conference. He’s also a fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University.2009

Chinese blogger Isaac Mao visiting New Zealand

Chinese blogger and social entrepreneur, Isaac Mao is visiting Auckland for 24 hours as part of whirlwind tour of NZ journalism schools. The trip is sponsored by Asia New Zealand Foundation. The Auckland leg is being hosted by the Centre for Journalism, Media & Democracy at AUT.

Isaac is an excellent commentator on China’s netizens and issues such as the recent Green Dam proposal, the Great Firewall of China, self censorship and other social and internet related issues.

There is this August 08 article by Isaac on The Guardian website

There are two chances to hear Isaac speak about the blogosphere in China and social media in the world of Web 2.0.

• Sunday 18th October 3pm til around 5pm then adjourn to a local bar. This will be in WT tower, AUT opposite Aotea square, room WT1103.
• Monday 19th he will be talking again in WT1305 at 12 noon.

If you’d like to come to either event pls rsvp to me martin.hirst AT aut.ac.nz

Olympic obsenities – rolling updates #3

I’ve had a great Olympics so far. I’ve managed to avoid all but the most incidental coverage of the actual “games”; though it hasn’t been easy.  I’ve refrained from getting into arguments with patriotic and even downright chauvinist Kiwis about the “funtastic” effort from “our” chaps and chapettes. I’ve even managed to catch up on some classic Star Trek thanks to Moac’s buddy who’s kindly loaned us his prize collector’s edition DVD boxed set.

But it hasn’t been so much fun for the blessed Chinese who thought they were going to get an opportunity to have their complaints heard by a sympathetic and “modernizing” regime. I read today of two grandmothers who’ve been sentenced to “re-education through labour” just for even daring to take the dictators at their word and apply for a protest permit.

The isolent cheek of these two old ladies; don’t they know what’s best for the nation is also best for them.

To top off my week of hilarity, the story of the underage Chinese gymnast is finally getting some well-deserved attention. He Kexin is a plucky young lass who serves as an object lesson to the gruntled grannies. She knows what’s best for everyone is to shut up and play along with the charade.

Ah, the scandal. Gotta love these games.

Olympic coverage I like

I posted earlier today about my household’s boycott of the Olympics; the cats are down with that.

But, I am interested in news from China, particularly stuff that just won’t go away and continues to prove embarrassing to the regime.

I’m sorry for the family of Hugh McCutcheon, but this is insane.

Tragedy struck the New Zealand-born coach of the United States men’s Olympic volleyball team in Beijing when his father-in-law was murdered in an attack in Beijing.

Olympic murder attack survivor still critical

An Australian journalist was also attacked in a separate incident, but not hurt.

But wait there’s more;

Deadly explosions rock restive Chinese province

Threats, detention and KFC for protestors

And my favourite by the Herald reporter in Beijing, Paul Lewis.

A hotel in the city has been closed down and all the guests moved out because a pro-Tibet group held a protest there a couple of days ago. Good on you Paul, stay away from the stadia and give us more of this – the real story of Beijing 2008.

Beijing’s Hotel G has just become Hotel Gone – closed down by Chinese security, maybe for the period of the Games, maybe indefinitely.

Its crime: a room was used for a Free Tibet protest.

The abrupt closure shows how some people and businesses in China live on a knife edge even today, and also demonstrates how ingenious and stealthy dissidents have to be to avoid being “disappeared”.

Hotel’s last orders

Paul Lewis Beijing blog

Boycott Beijing Olympics coverage

I’ve decided (in fact, Moac convinced me) that our household is going to be Olympics-free for the next 14 days. I didn’t watch the opening ceremony; I don’t care about the rowing, soccer, swimming, horse riding or any other shit.

I’m with the rebels of Xinjiang and the Falun Gong. China has a repressive regime, a crap record on human rights and it’s not right that the rest of the world is in thrall to these gangsters.

I’m going to join the blogring boycott too. I found out about it from this dedicated blog: Boycott 2008 Olympics

I’m not going to watch TV1 for the next two weeks, I won’t be catching any highlights shows on skysport and I won’t be reading about the medal count etc in the newspapers, I will be turning off Morning Report when they cross to Beijing for sport stories.

The fun and games in South Ossetia are much more interesting and important.

Reporters sans frontieres – boycotting the Olympics

I am interested to see that the usually non-partisan Reporters sans frontieres (Reporters without borders) is campaigning quite hard for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics.

One can’t really argue with the campaign’s slogan “China: the world’s largest prison for journalists and cyber-dissidents”, though Baghdad and Kabul are probably more dangerous, perhaps even Moscow and the former Soviet Union.

I must say though, that I agree with the RSF.